Well.. let’s just hope that God doesn’t ordain an exorcism of the Nationals’ postseason demons this year.

Following the departure of Bryce Harper, the 2019 Nationals have at least won their first postseason…series? game? since moving to DC after a 4-3 victory of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Look, we’d all have loved a rematch of last year’s NLCS. Especially against a Brewers team with a +3 run differential that’s missing Yelich, but complaining about an opponent doesn’t help anyone, especially in a gentlemenly sport like baseball.

NO GOD. NO. I DON’T WANT SCHERZER, STRASBURG, CORBIN IN A FIVE GAME SERIES. I DON’T WANT TO DEAL WITH BASEBALL GODS LOVING UPON A HARPER-LESS NATIONALS.

Hrm, that seemed a bit unhinged. Don’t think it would be totally healthy to have this mentality in the lead up to the NLDS. Let’s see how the Nationals playoff squad should stack up against the Dodgers’.

Taking a look at the Fangraphs leaderboards, the Nationals are second only to the Dodgers in total WAR. Which would normally be terrifying, but the Dodgers are ahead of them by 9.7 WAR, roughly one healthy Mike Trout (or one 2015 Bryce Harper).

However, that’s more of a stat that emphasizes the depth and 162-game strength of the Dodgers and undersells a top-heavy Nationals team. We should really be comparing who will be playing for either team this series.

When looking at prospective playoff rosters, the Dodgers have the edge in hitting, with an average 118 wRC+ vs. 111 wRC+ for the Nationals, assuming that every hitter would receive the same amount of plate appearances.

Given the Dodgers’ ability to mix and match and the bountiful pinch hit opportunities, I’m fine with viewing the 118 wRC+ as a wholistic number. However, if you want to squint and only look at the “starting” lineups, the Dodgers still have the advantage with a 124 wRC+ vs 116. On the other side of the ball, the Dodgers also have the advantage in run prevention with an average ERA- of 76 vs the Nationals’ ERA- of 81.

These numbers could be seen as an indication of overall team talent, but that might not be good enough.

The Nationals are sold short here, given the enormous gap in talent between their relievers and starters. If we assume that their starters will face around 60% of the batters (not low considering this is the playoffs), their weighted team ERA- still ends up at 79. Likewise, if we assume a starter usage rate around 60% for the Dodgers (way higher than I think it would be), their weighted team ERA- ends up around 71.

No matter how you slice or dice it, the Dodgers are simply better. They have better hitters, better defense, comparable starting pitching, and much better relief pitching. Even if the Nationals use their big 3 as bullpen pieces in between starts, I don’t know if that’s necessarily any better than their current relief options and 3 men just can’t pitch all of the innings.

It’s the playoffs, one big *shrug* emoji. Anything can happen, but the Dodgers should be better than the Nationals. Let’s just remind the baseball gods that 31 years is longer than 14 (not counting the Expos years 35 years and the fact that the expos lost to the dodgers in 81).